推動人民幣國際化需要開拓更多新的通道
2016-02-14 17:25:00 來源:央廣網
掌控國際貨幣,就等于掌握了世界經濟的流動性控制權。長久以來,美元都是主要的國際貨幣,美國從美元幣值的起伏中獲得巨大好處2008年金融危機以后,美元大幅貶值,降低了美國的債務負擔,但卻導致很多國家的外匯儲備價值嚴重縮水。
近兩年,在全球經濟低迷、亟需開展宏觀經濟政策國際合作的背景下,美國不顧國際社會反對,通過加息的辦法引導資金回流美國,導致很多新興經濟體國家資本流動逆轉,極大地增加了經濟困難和風險,也給全球經濟帶來了嚴重困難。作為重要的國際儲備貨幣,美元始終面臨著“特里芬難題”,在追求國家利益和承擔國際責任上難以兩全。
對中國來講,加快推動人民幣國際化,防止因美元波動而給本國貿易、經濟發(fā)展帶來過大影響,具有十分重要的意義。
一方面人民幣國際化有利于中國對外貿易和經濟發(fā)展,但另一方面,也有利于形成競爭壓力,形成多元的國際儲備貨幣格局,從而有利于保持國際金融穩(wěn)定,促進全球貿易開展和經濟發(fā)展。
首先,人民幣國際化可以增強中國對世界經濟的影響力,提升中國的國際地位。人民幣成為國際貨幣之后,中國就擁有了一種世界貨幣的發(fā)行和調節(jié)權,對全球經濟的影響和發(fā)言權自然增加,同時也能夠改變在國際貨幣體系中被支配的地位,減少國際貨幣體制對中國的不利影響。
其次,人民幣國際化可以降低匯率風險,促進中國國際貿易和投資的發(fā)展。人民幣國際化意味著更多的對外貿易和金融交易將由人民幣計價結算,擁有主權貨幣的中國企業(yè)和投資者面對匯率風險敞口就會縮小。而外貿企業(yè)持有的大量外幣債券和債務,將較少受到匯價波動帶來的巨大風險。
再次,人民幣國際化有利于促進邊境貿易。邊境貿易和旅游等發(fā)生的人民幣跨境流動,推動了雙邊貿易往來,加快了邊境地區(qū)的經濟發(fā)展。而貿易發(fā)展帶來的資源互利,對于中國短缺資源的補充和緩解市場供應過剩有很大的好處。
最好,人民幣國際化可以讓中國獲得國際鑄幣稅收入。鑄幣稅是指發(fā)行者憑借發(fā)行貨幣的特權所獲得的紙幣發(fā)行面額與紙幣發(fā)行成本之間的差額。發(fā)行世界貨幣則相當于從別國征收鑄幣稅,這種收益基本是無成本的。
不過,相比于國內貨幣所具有的計價單位、支付手段和價值儲藏功能,成為國際貨幣體系則相對更加復雜。人民幣想要國際上通用,必須具備幾個要素。
一、需要有相匹配的國際政治經濟軍事地位。世界經濟金融的歷史表明,最強大的國家往往才能提供最強硬的貨幣。美元、歐元、日元等能夠成為國際貨幣,就是因為美國、歐盟、日本的強大的政治經濟和軍事實力,以及由此帶來的高國際信用。
二、必須讓人們對人民幣的價值有信心,因而對中國的通貨膨脹情況予以信任。高而變化無常的通貨膨脹會造成名義匯率的貶值和不穩(wěn)定。
三、中國必須建立一個開放的、具有一定深度和廣度的國內金融市場。比如,健全的銀行承兌市場,會有利于擴大以人民幣提供資金的貿易額,進而使得在貿易中用人民幣計價。又比如,活躍的短期證券市場,有利于增加外國買家對于人民幣的需求。
四、擁有大量的國際出口貿易份額,用人民幣標價的出口品范圍大,那么外國買家為了支付進口貿易,就會需要更多的人民幣。
但是人民幣國際化道路上也是障礙重重,最大的問題便是人民幣國際流通量增長不足。雖說在東南亞許多國家,人民幣已經成為了硬通貨之一,可是來自美國等各方的壓力也使得人民幣流通量的增長進展緩慢。與韓國、英國、南非等各國貨幣的直接交易協議達成,將是一條路。而更多其他道路需要被開發(fā),來解決這個棘手的問題。
為實現人民幣國際化,需要大力鼓勵和推動外貿企業(yè)與境外貿易伙伴以人民幣結算,同時也需要不斷擴大以人民幣計價的金融資產的規(guī)模以及交易水平,盡快在境外形成能夠與歐元證券和美元證券抗衡的人民幣金融市場。(作者:美國BZM創(chuàng)新科技CEO 王英捷)
英文版:
The status of world currency equals to the control over the liquidity of world economy. For a long period of time, US dollar has been the major world currency and has benefited significantly from the ups and downs of its value. The dollar was depreciated sharply in the aftermath of the 2008 Crisis, which eased US’s debt burden while on the other hand, leading to a slump in the value of foreign reserves of many other countries.
The past two years have witnessed a global economic downturn and a growing demand for coordination of macro economic policies across the globe. Even so, the Federal Reserve has, regardless of the objection from international society, decided to raise its interest rate in order to draw capital back to the country. Such decision has caused shortage of capital in emerging economies, introducing greater economic predicament and risk to these countries as well as the across the globe. With its currency as an important international reserve currency, United States has long been struggling with the “Triffin Dilemma”, striving hard to maintain the the delicate balance between its international liability and national interest.
For China, accelerating the internationalization of Renminbi is of great significance and will help to minimize the impact on its trade and economic development from the fluctuation of the US dollar.
One on hand, the internationalization of Renminbi will be beneficial to China’s trade and economic development. On the other hand, it is likely to exert pressure on a positive currency competition, leading to a diverse formation of international reserve currency that will contribute to the stability of international finance and promote global trade and economic development.
Firstly, the internationalization of Renminbi can expand China’s influence on world economy and promote China’ s international status. China will obtain the right of issuance and control of a world currency and is likely to have a greater say and impact on global economic issues. Moreover, its role of being dominated in international currency system can be optimized and therefore reducing the negative impact of the system.
Secondly, the internationalization of Renminbi can reduce currency rate risk and therefore promote China’ s trade and investment development. More trade and financial transaction will be denominated in Renminbi, which can effectively reduce the risk borne by Chinese companies and investors. As for those Chinese enterprises dealing in foreign trade, the foreign bond and liabilities they are holding are less likely to be influenced by currency rate fluctuation.
Furthermore, the internationalization of Renminbi will be beneficial to border trade. The cross-border movement of Renminbi brought about by border trade, tourism, etc. will promote bilateral trade and the economic development of the border regions. The exchange of resources as a result of such trade will be a good supplement to China’s resource shortage as well as an effective way out for its excess production capacity.
Lastly, the internationalization of Renminbi will bring China Seigneur revenues. Such revenue refers to price gap between the cost and the issuing denomination of the note. By issuing world currency, China will be essentially collecting Seigneur from other countries at a cost of almost zero.
However, compared with the role of a currency within its home country, the international currency system is more complicated. In order to flow freely across the globe, Renminbi has several criteria to meet.
1) A well-matched international political, economic and military status of the home country. The history of international finance has shown the strong connection between the power of a country and its currency. The national power of US, the EU and Japan are what have made the Dollar,Euro and Yen as they are today. Their national power have brought their currency worldwide credibility.
2) Confidence in Renminbi. Confidence in Renminbi is closely related to confidence in the management of currency inflation. High and unpredictable inflation rate will result in the instability and depreciation of nominal exchange rate.
3) A more open and comprehensive domestic financial market. For example, a sound banker’s acceptance bill market will help to expand the trade denominated in Renminbi; a vibrant short-term bond market will increase foreign investors demand for Renminbi.
4) A greater share of global trade. With a growing export from China denominated in Renminbi, foreign buyers will be encouraged to access more Renminbi in order to pay for the import.
Still, hurdles prevail in the road toward Renminbi’s internationalization and a shortage of growth of the Renminbi in international circulation is currently the greatest challenge. Even though Renminbi has become a major currency in many southeast Asian countries, it is constantly confronting the pressure from the United States and has been experiencing a slow growth rate. To strike deal with South Korea, UK, South Africa, etc on bilateral currency exchange will be one of the workable solutions. However, more creative solutions are needed.
To make Renminbi an international currency, great effort is demanded to encourage foreign trade enterprises to settle their deals in Renminbi, to expand the scale of financial assets and transactions denominated in Renminbi and to establish a overseas Renminbi financial market that is comparable to that of the EURO bonds and Dollar bonds.(About the author: Wendy Wang is the CEO of BZM Innovation Technology, Inc.,a Fin-tech company based in New York with business in investment and the payment industry.)
編輯:馬繼鵬
關鍵詞:人民幣;國際化;通道
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